The circumstance for this UEFA Champions League return leg is
drastically different from just weeks ago. A 2-2 draw in Paris is
gigantically superior to a 2-0 deficit, yet, the team should approach
Paris Saint-Germain not vastly differently to AC Milan. The objective
must certainly be to score, multiple times, if not simply because Tito
Vilanova cannot plan the match realistically believing the team will
keep a clean sheet. More after the jump.
I watch a bit of PSG. Well, full disclosure, I try my best to watch PSG in
Ligue 1
but rarely can stomach a full match of what is usually insipid and
lethargic football that predictably concludes with a Zlatan heroic. It
makes sense, PSG hire mercenaries to win trophies but none of those
players ever dreamed of playing in Paris, and frankly they cannot
motivate themselves to peak performance on a Saturday afternoon versus
Stade Brestois 29.
But last week was different. I am open to correction but aside from
Maxwell and Beckham, no other PSG player has a Champions League medal to
his name, and that was the motivation needed to produce PSG’s best
performance of their season, both my opinion and that of the journalists
closest to them. 2-2 is certainly advantage FC Barcelona, but the
threat from set-pieces was only too evident in France and then names
like Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Javier Pastore, Ezequiel Lavezzi, Lucas Moura,
and Thiago Silva sprinkled with some David Beckham, Jérémy Ménez, and
Marco Verratti are concern enough.
Then there is Lionel Messi, or rather, will there be Lionel Messi?
His blood ran red, to the disappointment of many, so an extraterrestrial
he is not, still his recoveries from injury of late have been nothing
short of alien. My guess is he will play, but is there concern if he
does not?
Yes, a 5-0 demolition of Mallorca was enjoyable, Fàbregas and Alexis
ran riot, but a home match versus the worst team in Spain is not a
Wednesday night versus some of the game’s finest individuals hungry for
validation. ‘Messi-dependence’ is a term
cules dislike, it’s
too often exaggerated, but it’s simultaneously hard to argue the
numbers. If one takes a ratio of top goalscorer (always Messi) to next
highest scorer since Pep Guardiola’s debut year, a trend emerges: 1.06,
2.04, 2.3, 4.87, and currently 3.93. Messi’s importance has grown to
scoring just more than Samuel Eto’o in 2008/9 to doubling his teammates
and most recently scoring nearly 5 times more than anyone else. That is
far from exact correlation, clearly without Messi others would
inevitably pick up the slack, but his importance is never more clear
than in tight matches versus well-drilled defensive setups. PSG need to
score, but what if they score first, a bumbled in corner perhaps, then
sit back in the mold of Inter Milan and Chelsea and
La Pulga isn’t there to create space, assists, and goals.
And defensively? Officially only Mascherano is absolutely out, but
Puyol isn’t even near top fitness, Abidal just made a return after about
one year, Bartra lacks this level of experience, Song has proven
himself a mess at the back, and while Piqué has proven himself class,
even the most fervent of us cannot say this year’s performances instill
total confidence. Choosing Piqué’s partner, and the permutations it
creates, is Tito Vilanova’s most critical decision.
Team News
FC Barcelona
Javier Mascherano is sidelined, Pedro and Adriano are expected to be available, and Lionel Messi will be a game-time decision.
Line-up wise, the permutations depend on Piqué’s partner and Messi’s
inclusion. Tito could leave Busquets at his best in the midfield and
trust in Bartra, or Busi may move backwards into a position he plays
competently and create space for an inform Cesc to enter and focus more
on ball retention than classical defending. Has Song earned enough
faith? Can Alexis’s industry be sacrificed for the poacher Villa? All
questions, of which there are many more, to be answered soon enough.
Predicted line-up: Valdés; Alves, Piqué, Busquets, Alba; Xavi, Fàbregas, Iniesta; Alexis, Messi, Villa
PSG
Both ‘Thiagos’, Silva and Motta have made the traveling squad.
Blaise Matuidi’s suspension is Carlo Ancelotti’s only proper personnel
absentee. His role as destroyer will almost certainly be filled by
former
blaugrana Motta.
David Beckham will start again to fulfill his role as chief engineer
of a more direct approach and set-piece executioner. Be under no
illusions, PSG will have been practicing many variants of dead-balls
over the past days.
Predicted line-up: Sirigu; Jallet, T. Silva, Alex, Maxwell; Beckham, T. Motta; Moura, Pastore, Lavezzi; Ibrahimovic
Squad (23, 5 to drop): Alex, Areola, Armand, Beckham, Camara,
Chantome, Douchez, Gameiro, Ibrahimovic, Jallet, Lavezzi, Le Crom,
Lucas, Maxwell, Ménez, Pastore, Sakho, Sirigu, Motta, Silva, Tiéné, Van
der Wiel, Verratti
Prediction
Barça will find a way. Success in the Champions League of late has
been fundamentally predicated on home performances, so thankfully the
Camp Nou beckons. Whether it will be comfortable enough or nail-biting
remains to be seen. PSG was manageable mostly from open play, aside from
Moura early on, so Barça need to be focused and vigilant about not
committing needless fouls around the penalty area. Rather let the PSG
man beat you and earn his cross than barge him over carelessly and allow
them to set up a routine and send bodies, much larger and taller
bodies, forward. The dead-ball is the only area PSG unequivocally hold
advantage.